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投资美国市场的五种方式

2010-07-14 11:39来源:未知

许,美国并不是一个那么糟糕的投资市场。



Tim Foley

在欧洲,希腊深陷债务泥潭,搞得焦头烂额,西班牙宣布将救助那些因房地产泡沫破灭和主权债 务问题而摇摇欲坠的银行,葡萄牙、意大利和爱尔兰也同样面临窘迫的财政困境。为抑制房地产泡沫引发的投机行为,中国一直在收紧银根。

“虽然近期美国经济复苏仍存在一些不确定性,但美国人还是应该把投资重心放在本国的资本市场,尤其是鉴于欧洲目前面临种种问题,中国经济也有急剧衰退的担 忧,” 标准普尔公司(Standard & Poor's)的股票策略师艾力克•杨(Alec Young)说。

一些投资专业 人士表示,如果把一部分资金配置到主要关注美国本土股市和债市的共同基金上,将有助于控制投资海外市场可能出现的高风险,而且这种做法能让你接触到一些专 家所谓的美国长期以来最稳定的行业板块和产品。

当然,美国市场整体而言还远未从动荡中恢复过来。道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)经过连续四个季度的上涨,在2010年二季度期间下跌10%。美国股市的波动性高达三位数的百分比,搞得人晕头转向。

美 国经济复苏还面临其他一些阻力,尤其是在近期一个阶段。2010年6月,美国削减了12.5万个就业岗位,是今年以来的首次月度负增长,而失业率依然高企 不下。“房地产市场还很疲软,很显然,要想让股市有所起色,就业市场必须出现持续性的改善,”杨说道。

不过,在一个充份多元化的投资组合 中保留一部分美国本土市场投资,从长远来看将是稳妥的一步。

下面是投资美国市场的一些诀窍:

1. 注重美国本土消费板块

如果你想投资那些主要面向美国客户群的美国企业,那应该考虑公共事业、电信公司和地区性银行。

通 用电气(General Electric)和可口可乐(Coca-Cola)这些蓝筹巨头有“40%以上的收入来自于海外市场”,与此不同的是,上述板块的企业主要面向“美国本 地社区的消费者”,标准普尔公司的共同基金分析师托德•罗森布鲁斯(Todd Rosenbluth)说道。

在投资公共事业板块方面,罗 森布鲁斯推荐富兰克林公用事业基金 (Franklin Utilities Fund)和美国世纪公共事业基金(American Century Utilities Fund)。这两个基金的操作费用比率(expense ratio)分别占管理总资产的0.8%和0.7%,低于1.5%的行业平均水平。美国世纪公共事业基金从2010年初到6月底净值下跌7.3%,持有一 些公共事业和电信企业的股票,如爱迪生国际公司(Edison International)和美国电话电报公司(AT&T)。富兰克林公用事业基金本年至6月底下跌7%,持有的股票包括桑普拉能源公司 (Sempra Energy)和美国电力能源公司(American Electric Power)。

罗森布鲁斯说,美国的公共事业 和电信企业不受海外市场存在的一些问题和风险的影响,而且拥有很高的分红率。此外,这些公司提供的是民生服务,受消费者可支配支出下降的影响较小。

在 金融板块方面,罗森布鲁斯看好约翰汉考克地区性银行基金(John Hancock Regional Bank Fund)和富达精选银行组合基金(Fidelity Select Banking Portfolio fund)。前者今年上涨2.3%,持有的股票包括PNC金融服务集团(PNC Financial Services)、美国东南部地区性银行BB&T和美国银行(Bank of America)。后者今年上涨4.8%,持有的股票包括BB&T、联信银行(Comerica Bank)和五三银行(Fifth Third Bancorp)。

美国地区性银行的商业模式受金融监管改革和更多资本金要求的影响较小,与小型社区银行和大型银行相比处于一个相对有 利的位置,标准普尔证券研究公司(S&P Equity Research)的分析师奥加(Erik Oja)说道。

2. 关注国防板块

既然F-22猛禽战斗机(F-22 Raptor)最能体现出美国强大的实力,为什么不投资美国国防产业呢?

看 好国防板块的投资者正在试图解读奥巴马政府发动战争从而大幅提高国防支出的可能性到底有多大,基金研究机构理柏公司(Lipper)的高级分析师托内奥吉 (Jeff Tjornehoj)说。他认为国防板块目前的表现和未来预期已经把伊拉克和阿富汗战争的政府支出考虑在内。

一般来说,这是 一个很少有意外消息的产业,托内奥吉说。

关注国防板块的方式之一是投资富达精选国防及航空航天基金(Fidelity Select Defense & Aerospace fund),其持有的股票包括美国联合技术公司(United Technologies)、波音公司(Boeing)、霍尼韦尔国际公司(Honeywell International)和洛克希德•马丁公司(Lockheed Martin)。理柏公司的数据显示,该基金在2010年上半年上涨了0.4%。

此 外还可以考虑交易所交易基金(ETF),这种基金跟踪某一种指数,但可以像股票一样在证券交易所进行交易,比如安硕道琼斯美国航空航天及国防 ETF(iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense),本年下跌2.1%,以及威力股航空航天及国防ETF(PowerShares Aerospace & Defense),本年下跌5%。

3. 投资山姆大叔

在固定收益领域,投资者可以通过购买国债基金和财政部公债基金来投 资美国联邦政府发行的债券。

“这些债券的违约风险极低,” 托内奥吉说,“我们知道全球有些政府在偿还债务方面面临困境,但还没有哪家政府真的违约,而且这些政府的情况要比美国糟糕得多。”

根据理 柏公司的统计,2010年上半年,国债和财政部公债表现都不错,国债基金上涨6.3%,财政部公债基金上涨9.9%。

先锋长期财政部公债 基金(Vanguard Long Term Treasury Fund)本年上涨了13%,而其操作费用比率仅为0.25%。从长期来看,“这是该投资类别中很好的一个基金。” 托内奥吉说道。

一个 更为保守的选择是富达中等规模政府债券基金(Fidelity Intermediate Government Income Fund),今年上涨了4.4%。“购买快到期的政府债券风险更小。” 托内奥吉说。债券的期限越长,利率上升时价格下跌的幅度越大。

4. 考虑市政债

投资于一个或多个州政府范围的免税市政债基金是关注美国本土市场的另一种方式。与财政部公债不同,市政债的利息在联邦政府层 面是免税的;而在美国许多州和地区,如乔治亚州,当地居民购买该州发行的债券也是免收利息税的。

根据标准普尔的统计,T. Rowe Price乔治亚州免税债券基金(T. Rowe Price Georgia Tax-Free Bond Fund)本年至6月底上涨了2.7%,其中超过“85%的资产投资于信用等级为A级(含)以上的债券。”罗森布鲁斯说道。

T. Rowe Price高峰市政债中级基金(T. Rowe Price Summit Municipal Intermediate Fund)投资于各州的市政债,持有的品种包括弗吉尼亚州、加州、科罗拉多州和密苏里州发行的市政债,今年上涨了2.5%。

5. 押注美元汇率

近期美元的保值能力一直很强,尤其是相对于欧元来说,2010年至今美元已对欧元升值了14%。

如果你认为 这种升值是暂时的,“且美元未来可能对外币贬值,那么货币基金将是个不错的投资方向。” 托内奥吉说道。

但对那些看好美元的投资者来说, 选择则要少许多。其中之一是Direxion月报美元看涨两倍基金(Direxion Monthly Dollar Bull Two Times fund)。这只小基金的操作费用比率为1.7%,追求美元升值两倍的投资目标,托内奥吉说。根据理柏公司的数据,该基金本年上涨了17.76%。这不是 在开玩笑。

Maybe the good ol' U.S.A. isn't such a bad place to invest, after all.

In Europe, Greece is dealing with the ramifications of its crippling debt crisis. Spain announced plans to bail out banks reeling from its housing-boom collapse and sovereign-debt concerns. Portugal, Italy and Ireland also face weak fiscal positions. China has been tightening lending amid speculation of a real-estate bubble.

'Despite the near-term uncertainties surrounding our economic recovery, it's important to have significant domestic exposure, especially in light of Europe's troubles and fears of a sharp slowdown in China,' says Alec Young, a stock strategist with Standard & Poor's.

Some investment pros say putting some money into stock and bond mutual funds that have a mostly domestic focus is a way to limit your exposure to the woes facing outside markets -- and it gives you access to sectors and products that some experts believe are consistently the most stable parts of the U.S. market.

Of course, the U.S. markets on the whole are still far from stable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the second quarter down 10%, after a streak of four quarterly gains. And it was a performance punctuated by dizzying triple-digit ups and downs.

There are other headwinds as well, especially in the short term. In June, 125,000 jobs were shed, the first losses this year, and the unemployment rate remains high. 'Housing is still pretty weak and clearly the job market will have to show some sustained improvements for the stock market to take off,' says Mr. Young.

Still, making home-grown investments part of a well-diversified portfolio could be a prudent long-term move.

Here are some ways to invest in the U.S.A.:

1. Focus on the U.S. Consumer

Investors looking to invest in U.S. companies that cater almost entirely to the U.S. consumer should look to utilities, telecoms and regional banks.

Unlike blue-chip giants like General Electric and Coca-Cola, which get '40%-plus of their revenue from outside the U.S.,' the customers of companies in these sectors 'are in the neighborhood,' says Todd Rosenbluth, a mutual-fund analyst at S&P.

For utilities, he points to the Franklin Utilities Fund and the American Century Utilities Fund. They have expense ratios of 0.8% and 0.7% of assets, respectively, below the 1.5% average for their peer group. The American Century fund, which is off 7.3% this year (through June), holds utilities and some telecoms such as Edison International and AT&T. The Franklin fund, down 7%, includes Sempra Energy and American Electric Power.

U.S. utilities and telecoms don't have exposure to problems and risks in other countries and they have high dividend yields, says Mr. Rosenbluth. Also, they provide core services, which aren't as affected by a decrease in discretionary consumer spending.

For financials, he likes the John Hancock Regional Bank Fund and the Fidelity Select Banking Portfolio fund. Up 2.3%, the John Hancock fund includes PNC Financial Services, BB&T and Bank of America. The Fidelity fund, up 4.8%, includes BB&T, Comerica Bank and Fifth Third Bancorp.

With business models that could be less affected by regulatory reform and more capital, regional banks may be in a better position than their small community bank and larger bank counterparts, says Erik Oja, a banking analyst at S&P Equity Research.

2. Play Defense

Nothing says American power like an F-22 Raptor fighter jet, so why not invest in the U.S. defense industry?

With defense bets, investors are trying to determine the extent to which the current administration is going to fight wars and boost spending on defense items, says Jeff Tjornehoj, a senior research analyst at fund tracker Lipper. He thinks spending on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars is factored into the sector's current performance and expectations.

It's an industry with typically few surprises, he says.

One way to play defense is the Fidelity Select Defense & Aerospace fund which invests in defense contractors including United Technologies, Boeing, Honeywell International and Lockheed Martin. The fund has risen 0.4% through the first half, according to Lipper.

There also are exchange-traded funds, which track an index but trade on an exchange like a stock, such as iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense, down 2.1%, and PowerShares Aerospace & Defense, down 5%.

3. Invest in Uncle Sam

In the fixed-income realm, there's debt from the federal government, through government and Treasury bond funds.

'The default risk on these [bonds] is extremely low,' Mr. Tjornehoj says. 'We understand that governments around the world are having a tough time meeting their [debt] obligations, but none of them have defaulted. And they are in way worse condition than we are.'

Both categories performed well in the first half, with government bond funds up 6.3% and Treasury bond funds up 9.9%, according to Lipper.

The Vanguard Long Term Treasury Fund is up 13%. With an expense ratio of 0.25%, 'it's been a very good fund in this category' over the long run, says Mr. Tjornehoj.

A more conservative option is the Fidelity Intermediate Government Income Fund, which is up 4.4%. 'It takes less risk by buying government bonds that are closer to maturity,' says Mr. Tjornehoj. The longer the maturity, the more a bond will fall in price for any given increase in interest rates.

4. Go 'Stateside'

Tax-free municipal-bond funds that invest in one or multiple states are another way to invest at home. Unlike Treasurys, interest from muni bonds isn't taxed at the federal level. And many states and localities, such as Georgia, don't tax that income either if a resident buys the state's bond.

The T. Rowe Price Georgia Tax-Free Bond Fund, which rose 2.7% through June according to S&P, has more than '85% of the assets in bonds rated A or higher,' says Mr. Rosenbluth.

T. Rowe Price Summit Municipal Intermediate Fund is a multi-state offering, with holdings including bonds issued by Virginia, California, Colorado and Missouri. The fund is up 2.5%.

5. Bet on the Greenback

The U.S. dollar has been holding its value as of late, especially against the euro. The greenback is up 14% against the euro so far this year.

For investors who think that gain will be short-lived and 'the dollar could decline in value versus foreign currencies, currency funds would be one way to play that,' says Mr. Tjornehoj.

But there are fewer options for those bullish on the dollar. One is the Direxion Monthly Dollar Bull Two Times fund. With an expense ratio of 1.7%, this small fund seeks twice the appreciation of the dollar, he says. According to Lipper, the fund is up 17.76%. No joke.

(责任编辑:admin)
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