国钢铁价格在保持了数月的坚挺之后开始大幅下滑。在制造 活动放缓、消费者对汽车和家用电器等大件的购买更加谨慎之际，这种情况对美国经济来说可能是个不祥之兆。
6 月份美国钢铁价格暴跌，美国钢铁企业目前正减产加以应对。今年早些时候，钢铁企业纷纷增大产能，以便满足它们以为会伴随经济复苏而来的需求增长。然而事与 愿违的是，需求并不稳定。
对钢铁行业来说，另外一个不确定因素是中国。当衰退期间世界其它地方纷纷减少钢铁生产和消费时，中国对桥梁修 建、汽车和家用电器制造的巨大需求，帮助支撑了全球钢铁价格。
中国已在很大程度上减少了原料钢的出口，更倾向于出口高附加值的成品钢。不 过，最近中国国内钢铁消费需求有所放缓，让人担心中国可能会加大对美国和其他市场的钢铁出口。
钢铁咨询公司Steel Market Intelligence的阿普勒鲍姆(Michelle Applebaum)说，尽管最近美国采取了一系列贸易行动，但中国钢铁被非法倾销到美国市场的风险仍切实存在。
不过过去几年来，美国一 直积极地提起贸易诉讼、利用贸易法律来防止中国产钢铁被倾销到美国。美国拥有限制数种中国产钢铁产品（包括热轧钢、厚钢板和钢管）的法律和配额，不过阿普 勒鲍姆说，这些措施不如欧洲和加拿大采取的措施有效。
预计美国钢铁价格还会下跌，跌势至少会在夏季持续很长一段时间。在这种情况下，全球 最大的钢铁生产商安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)正计划削减美国印第安纳钢铁厂的产量。
俄 罗斯北方钢铁公司(Severstal)在美国运营有多家钢铁厂，由于需求放慢，预计它会在本月让其位于马里兰州的高炉停产。该公司发言人科维奇 (Elizabeth Kovach)说，高炉停产是因为建筑用钢市场出现放缓。
但分析界预计需求不会很快反弹。这意味着，钢铁企业有可 能会因为担心进一步压低价格而严格限制产量。
钢铁价格的进一步下跌，对大型钢铁需求方来说可以是好消息，因为建筑商和重型设备生产商等企 业的成本下降了。但要产生持久的影响，钢铁价格必须要在低水平保持一定的时间，因为多数大型钢铁消费企业都采用年度合同或半年度合同，来锁定它们与供应商 之间达成的价格。
其他钢铁消费企业则是按需求订购。得克萨斯钢铁经销商A&M Steel Co.销售经理马歇尔(Alex Marshall)说，我们部分客户取消了休斯顿产热压钢卷的订单。
他说，客户们取消订单是在想，再过几个星期，他们就可以用更低的价格 买到同样的钢铁产品。
纽约咨询公司Bradford Research分析师布拉福德(Charles Bradford)说，今年早些时候，美国钢铁企业过多地恢复了产能，它们以为到现在美国经济会变得更加强劲；这样做结果影响到了自身。被用于汽车和家电 等多种产品的热轧钢卷，其国内价格在6月份下降了4.5%，跌至约每每美吨630元。
布拉福德说，他认为热轧钢卷价格还会在未来数周再跌 80美元。他说，我们担心，如果部分钢铁厂不削减产量，热轧钢卷价格的跌势可能会加速，跌至每美吨550美元都是有可能的。
买方认为，钢 铁价格最早可能也要在8月份才会回升。夏季需求的减缓存在季节性，等这个季节结束，钢铁需求往往会增加。
Steel prices in the U.S. are tumbling after holding firm for months, potentially a bad omen for the nation's economy as manufacturing activity slows and consumers grow more cautious about big-ticket purchases, such as cars and appliances.
U.S. steel prices tumbled in June, and U.S. steel mills are responding by cutting production. Earlier this year they were ramping up capacity to meet the growth in demand they hoped would emerge from the economic recovery. Instead, demand has been spotty.
Another wild card for the industry is China. While the rest of the world was reducing steel production and consumption during the recession, China's voracious appetite for building bridges, autos and appliances, helped support global steel prices.
For the most part, China has stepped back from exporting raw steel, in favor of higher-value finished goods. But a recent easing in demand by China's domestic steel customers has raised fears the country could step up steel exports to the U.S. and other markets.
'There is a very real risk of steel from China being dumped illegally into the U.S. market, despite all the recent trade action,' said Michelle Applebaum, of Steel Market Intelligence, a steel consulting firm.
Over the past several years, however, the U.S. has been aggressive in filing trade cases and using trade laws to keep Chinese-made steel from being dumped in the U.S. The U.S. has laws or quotas restricting several types of Chinese-made steel products, including hot-rolled steel, plate steel, pipes and tubes, but these measures, said Ms. Applebaum, aren't as effective as those used by Europe and Canada.
Amid the slump in U.S. steel prices, which is expected to persist at least for much of the summer, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, is planning production cuts at its mills Indiana mills.
Russia's Severstal, which operates several mills in the U.S., is expected to idle its blast furnace in Maryland this month due to slow demand. Severstal spokeswoman Elizabeth Kovach said the idled blast furnace is due to a slowdown in the construction steel market.
Analysts don't expect demand to pick up anytime soon, however. That means steelmakers are likely to keep a tight rein on production for fear of sending prices even lower.
Further declines in steel prices could be good news for big steel consumers, lowering costs for builders, heavy-equipment makers and others. But prices would have to stay low for a while to have a lasting impact, since most heavy steel users rely on annual or biannual contracts to lock in prices from their suppliers.
Other steel consumers order on an as-needed basis. 'We are seeing some of our customers canceling orders for hot-rolled coils out of Houston,' said Alex Marshall, a sales manager at Texas-based steel distributor A&M Steel Co.
'Customers are putting off orders thinking that they can pick up the same steel, but at a cheaper price, a couple weeks from now.'
U.S. steelmakers, expecting the economy to be stronger by now, restarted too much capacity earlier this year, a move that has come back to haunt them, said Charles Bradford, an analyst at New York-based consulting firm Bradford Research. Domestic steel prices for hot-rolled steel coil, used for a wide range of products, such as automobiles and appliances, fell 4.5% in June to about $630 a short ton.
Mr. Bradford said he thinks the price could fall an additional $80 a ton in coming weeks. 'We are concerned that the decline in the hot-rolled coil price may speed up if some of the mills don't reduce output, with $550 a net ton a possibility,' he added.
Steel buyers don't think prices are likely to head back up until August at the earliest, when steel demand tends to increase as the seasonally slow summer draws to an end.