Here is a contender for most overused analogy of the year: buying naked credit default swap protection is like buying insurance against your neighbour's house burning down. Hedge funds bought it on Greek debt then fetched the fuel and matches, according to European politicians agitating for a ban. This is daft. CDS speculators do not have the power to push countries towards default. The better argument for regulatory interference in CDS markets is to protect buyers and sellers from themselves, not defend their targets.
下面这个类比可以参加“本年度最遭滥用类比”的评选：买入无实 体信用违约互换合同(naked CDS)，就像是买入一份保险防范你邻居家房子被烧毁。用鼓吹禁止此类交易的欧洲政治家们的话说，对冲基金先是买入针对希腊债务的CDS，然后取出了汽油 和火柴。这种说法很愚蠢。把相关国家推向违约，CDS投机者可没这个本事。若要支持对CDS市场实施监管干预，更为有力的论点应该是，要防止买卖双方受到 自身过失的影响，而不是要保护他们所针对的目标。
Yes, one of the biggest lessons of insurer AIG's implosion in 2008 was that CDS can create concentrations of counterparty risk that threaten not just their users but the stability of the financial system. Sensible regulations are in the works in the US and Europe to increase transparency and force contracts through clearing houses.
不错，保险商美国 国际集团(AIG)在2008年崩盘的一个最大教训是，CDS可能导致交易对手风险的集中，这不仅威胁到CDS投资者，也危及金融体系的稳定。美国和欧洲 正在拟定合理的监管规定，以增加透明度、并迫使CDS合约通过清算所交易。
The latest rumpus is less sensible. Greek politicians mutter darkly that climbing sovereign CDS prices have driven up yields on their bonds, and so their country's cost of funding. There is no clear evidence to support this. Sovereign CDS markets are dwarfed by their bond market counterparts: the value of net notional CDS on Greek bonds is about 2 per cent of outstanding Greek debt. Bond investors are made of sterner stuff than to panic when CDS spreads move higher and there are no obvious technical reasons to suppose the tail is wagging the dog.
最近出现的喧嚣则显得不那么明智。希腊政治家们心怀不满地抱怨道，主权CDS价格的不断攀升，推高了该国债券的收益率和融资成本。没有明确 证据支持这一说法。与主权债券市场相比，主权CDS市场的规模可谓是小巫见大巫：针对希腊债券的CDS的净名义价值，约为希腊未清偿债务的2%。在CDS 息差攀升之时，债券投资者并没有惶恐不安，而是变得愈发坚定；他们找不到明显的技术层面的原因，来认定是“尾巴在摇动狗”。
It is unpleasant to think hedge funds are betting against your country and it must be aggravating to know that they are making money from it. But unless Europe's politicians can provide proof to the contrary, they should accept the simplest explanation for the market's behaviour: CDS and bond spreads surged because investors in both markets noticed Greece has a thatched roof and a bad habit of leaving lit candles unattended.
一想到对冲基金正在做空自己的国家，这种滋味可不好受；要是知道它们还正在从中获利，那肯定更让人怒 火中烧。但除非欧洲政治家们能够拿出相反的证据，否则他们就该接受对市场行为最简单的解释：CDS息差和债券息差之所以飙升，是因为这两个市场中的投资者 都注意到，希腊有一个茅草屋顶、以及一个坏习惯——让点着的蜡烛处在无人看管的状态。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评， 对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析