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短线观点:开始容易退出难

2010-03-12 00:16来源:未知

  There is still no easy way out. The crisis of confidence in Greek debt has eased, now that the European Union appears ready to help. The extreme price of insuring Greek debt fell sharply as a result.
目前仍然 难以轻松摆脱困境。由于欧盟似乎准备伸出援手,希腊的债务信心危机已经缓解,希腊债务保险合约的极端价格已随之大幅下跌。

  But this only gave way to the reality that the eurozone, and the rest of the world, still face intractable problems.
但这只是让位给了严峻的现实:欧 元区及世界其它地区仍然面临着棘手问题。

  In Europe there are two problems. First, Greece is suffering a strike by public sector workers protesting the austerity measures that the government is proposing. This is a reminder that cutting government deficits is painful, and politically difficult.
在欧洲有两个问题。首先,希腊公共部门的 工作人员正在罢工,抗议政府提出的紧缩措施。这提醒着人们,削减政府赤字是痛苦的,且存在政治难度。

  Second, it might just have been better not to offer the Greeks any help. German central banks earned a reputation for rigid orthodoxy, and the European Central Bank, still based in Frankfurt, inherited it. Now, it appears to be caving in to pressure.
其次,也许不向希腊人提供任何帮助才是更好的做法。德国央 行以固守正统而闻名,至今总部仍在法兰克福的欧洲央行(ECB)秉承了这一传统。现在,它似乎向压力屈服了。

  Many believe the credit crisis was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's willingness to aid stricken institutions over the years, so this is not encouraging. The euro continued to fall.
许多人相信,美联储(Fed) 多年来愿意救助陷入困境机构的做法加剧了信贷危机,因此现在的情况并不令人鼓舞。欧元仍在下跌。

  In the US, there is another dilemma for another central bank. The market's recovery owes much to the exceptionally easy monetary policies that the Fed has been pursuing. These cannot last forever.
美国的央行面临着 另一种进退两难的局面。市场的复苏主要归功于美联储一直以来推行的异常宽松的货币政策。这些政策不可能永远持续下去。

  Getting out of easy money will require as much creativity as getting into it in the first place. Thus, the Fed's chairman Ben Bernanke thought out loud yesterday about how to exit, with the main options being to raise the discount rate at which the Fed lends directly to banks, and to manipulate the interest rate it pays on reserves.
退出需要像当初开始实施时一样有创造性。因此,美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)昨日说出了他的退出思路,主要方法就是提高美联储直接贷款给银行的贴现率,以及控制它向银行准备金支付的利率。

  He has thought out loud on these subjects in the past, and it was hard to see anything new in his testimony. But it briefly sent stocks down and strengthened the dollar. The mere reminder that the day will come when governments do not make life easy was enough to scare markets.
他过去就曾谈到过这些问题,昨日的证词没什么新意。但它一度导致股市下跌,美元走强。总有一天政府会让人们的日子不好过——这一单纯的提醒已足以令市场 感到恐慌。

  There will be an exit. But there is no easy exit.


  退出是早晚的,但并不容 易。


  

(责任编辑:admin)
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