Inflation in China jumped sharply last month, increasing the pressure on the government to begin raising interest rates and allow the renminbi to rise against the US dollar.
中国通货膨胀率上月大幅攀升,加大了政府提高银行利率和 允许人民币兑美元升值的压力。
Consumer prices rose by 2.7 per cent in February from a year ago, well above January’s 1.5 per cent increase and close to the 3 per cent ceiling that Premier Wen Jiabao set for this year in his speech to the National People’s Congress.
2月消费者价格同比增长2.7%,增幅大大高于1月的1.5%,已经接近温家宝总理 在此次人民代表大会上所作报告中设定的3%的最高值。
Industrial production also accelerated, increasing by 20.7 per cent for the first two months of 2010 over the year before. The figure came in above analysts’ forecasts and the 18.5 per cent increase recorded in December. Factory-gate prices climbed 5.4 per cent in February against 4.3 per cent the month before.
工业产出也开始提速,在今年头两个月比去年同期增长20.7%。这个数字高于 分析师的预期,也高过去年12月18.5%的增幅。出厂价格2月同比增长5.4%。高于上月4.3%的增幅。
The latest jumps in inflation and industrial output follow a bigger-than-expected increase in exports last month and will add to fears that the Chinese economy runs the risk of overheating as a result of the massive stimulus measures introduced last year.
通胀和工业产出双双大幅攀 升,加上2月高于预期的出口增长,将加剧人们的担忧,即中国去年实施的大规模经济刺激措施可能正在导致经济过热。
Helen Qiao and Yu Song at Goldman Sachs on Thursday said the new figures showed the government needed to take “more decisive tightening measures” in order to prevent the economy from overheating.
高盛经济学家乔 虹和宋宇周四表示,这些最新数据意味着政府需要采取“更坚决的紧缩措施”,以防止经济过热。
“The data, along with the stronger-than-expected exports data ... suggest that overall activity growth is accelerating on the back of the renewed credit expansion since the start of 2010 and on the improving external economic environment,” they said in a note. Such a high level of activity would likely increase inflationary pressures in the coming months, they added.
他们在一份报告中说:“这些数据,加上高于预期的出口数据 ... 表明,随着2010年初信贷再度扩张,以及外部经济环境改善,中国整体经济活动增长正在加速。”他们表示,这样高水平的经济活动可能在未来数月带来更大的 通胀压力。
New bank loans reached Rmb700bn ($103bn) last month, down from the Rmb1,400bn in January but above forecasts.
2月中国新增贷款达到7000亿人民币(合1030 亿美元),虽然低于1月的1.4万亿人民币,但仍然高过预期。
Because of the week-long Chinese new year holiday, which was in February this year and January the year before, Beijing released some of the figures on a two-month basis in order to reduce distortions.
由 于今年的农历新年是在2月,而去年是在1月,北京方面发布的一些数据是两个月的综合数据,以减少节日造成的数据偏差。
Retail sales grew in line with forecasts, rising 17.9 per cent year-on-year in January and February, up from 15.8 per cent in December, while fixed asset investment surged 26.6 per cent in the first two months of the year, from 20.5 per cent in December.
零售数据与此前预期一致,在今年 前两个月比去年同期增长17.9%,增幅高过去年12月的15.8%。1、2月固定资产投资同比增长26.6%,高过12月的20.5%。
The authorities have already taken some mild measures to tighten monetary policy, raising bank reserve requirements twice since the start of the year. They will now be under pressure to take bolder steps.
中国政府已经采取了一些温和措施来收紧货币政策,自今年年初以来已经两次提高银行准备金要求。现在它将面临压力采取更加大胆的措施。
Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the central bank, raised the prospect at the weekend of China abandoning its effective peg to the US dollar which has been in place since mid-2008, when he described the current policy as a “special” measure to allow China to weather the international crisis. However, he gave no hint about the timing of such a move, saying only that it would happen “sooner or later”.
上周末,中国央行行长周小川暗示,中国有可能 会结束将人民币实际与美元挂钩的汇率政策。他把这项始于2008年中的政策描述为旨在帮助中国渡过全球危机的“特殊”政策。不过,他没有给出任何何时取消 这项政策的暗示,只是说“迟早”会取消。
China could start to raise interest rates to try and cool its economy. Officials however fear this could prompt a big inflow of capital if China moves well before other major economies begin to tighten monetary policy.
中国可以开始提高银行利率给经济降温。但是政府官员们担心,在其它主要的经济体收紧货币 政策之前,这可能会导致大量资本流入中国。