你能在三分半钟内组织一个阴谋小集团吗？
Can you organize a cabal in three and a half minutes?
据一位现场目击者说，上周在纽约的一次“餐叙”上，对冲基金经理们大约就是用这点时间讨论了做空欧元的事。在这次聚会被曝光后，美国司法部 (Justice Department)已要求与会对冲基金保留与欧元相关的交易记录。
That is roughly how long hedge-fund managers discussed shorting the euro at an 'ideas dinner' in New York last month, according to a person present. After the meeting was reported, the Justice Department asked attending hedge funds to retain records of any euro-related trades.
这位出席了会议的人士说，那晚的讨论持续了约145分钟，大多数时间的谈话主题都是哪些股票值得买。那么，司法部为何要调查对冲基金押注欧元之 事，而不去调查聚会上有人提议购买医疗保健服务提供商McKesson公司股票的事呢？显而易见的理由是：政府要查明对冲基金是否共谋以做空欧元。当然， 这种可能性是存在的。但由于与会者有可能在其他一些想法上也形成了共谋，让美国司法部产生调查念头的必定是做空欧元这一想法本身。而这正是调查会误入歧途 的地方。
The evening's discussion lasted about 145 minutes, according to the attendee, and mostly focused on which stocks to buy. So why would the Justice Department probe the euro bet and not a proposal to buy shares in health-care-services provider McKesson, one of the other ideas? The apparent rationale: to find out whether there was collusion against the euro. Of course, that is possible. But as there could have been collusion on the other ideas, the red flag must have been the idea itself -- targeting the euro. And this is where probes can get dangerous.
司法部似乎认为，与“做多”一只医疗保健类股相比，做空欧元之举某种程度上更有可能存在“猫腻”。此外，对冲基金在世人眼里似乎也比其他市场参 与者更值得怀疑。鉴于银行是外汇市场上的重量级参与者，任何公正无私的调查应该也针对它们才对。对那些卖出欧元以对冲自身业务经营风险的公司又该如何呢？
The Justice Department appears to think betting against the euro is somehow more suspicious than being 'long' health care. Moreover, it appears that hedge funds are seen as more suspicious than other market participants. Given banks are huge players in the foreign-exchange market, any evenhanded probe would have to involve them, too. And how about the companies that sell euros as a hedge for their business operations?
或许司法部调查做空欧元之举的更真实的原因不过是，欧元很有理由下跌。
Perhaps the more prosaic truth is that there are good reasons for the euro to fall.