在经历了欢娱的2009年后,中国的房地产开发商正准备回到现实中来。
After a rollicking 2009, China's property developers are preparing for a return to earth.
万科企业股份有限公司传出的最新消息给中国房地产业定了调。万科是中国市场占有率最大的房地产开发商。该公司宣布去年净利润增长32%,但它对 今年业绩的预期却喜忧参半。万科预计,房屋销售价格有可能“保持稳定”。
The latest news from China Vanke, China's largest real-estate developer by market share, has set the tone. Reporting a 32% rise in net profit last year, it forecast a mixed picture this year, with selling prices likely to 'stabilize.'
事实可能证明这是一种十分委婉的说法。
That could prove to be quite a euphemism.
中国领导人本周将出席全国人大的年度会议。他们最近对房地产价格的快速上涨表示了担忧。一个具体的担忧是,高企的房价让很多向往首次购房的人只 能望楼兴叹。刚刚过去的冬季,政府已经出台各种为楼市降温的行政措施,接下来可能还会有更多措施推出。
China's leaders, who gather this week for the annual National People's Congress, are worried about the fast rise in property prices recently. A particular concern is that many hopeful first-time buyers are being priced out of the market. Administrative measures to slow things down came into force over the winter and more could be in store.
一些房地产企业面临的风险比其同行更大。标准普尔公司(Standard & Poor's)在最近的一份报告中说,那些在去年高价拿地的企业面临的风险最大。报告说,上海证大房地产有限公司和绿城中国控股有限公司是中国两只很容易 受挫的股票。相比之下,一些企业已经证明,即使市况趋紧,它们也更有能力保持旺盛的销售。
The stakes are higher for some property companies than for others. Standard & Poor's, in a recent report, said the most at risk are companies that bought land at high prices last year. Shanghai Zendai Property and Greentown China Holdings are two vulnerable stocks here, it says. By contrast, some property businesses have proved they are more able to keep sales buoyant even in a tougher market.
花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)指出,2008年上一轮楼市低迷期,一些企业因为“强大的执行力”而得以保持销售不断,其中的例子有中国海外发展有限公司和世茂房地 产。
Citi Investment Research points to China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land and Shimao Property as examples of companies able to keep selling during the last downturn in 2008, because of what it calls their 'strong execution ability.'
今年中国房地产企业极有可能展开优胜劣汰。人大会议或许有助于让人们看清淘汰赛开始得有多快。
This year looks set to help separate the sheep from the goats in China's property sector. The people's congress could help define just how quickly this separation happens.