退休后的生活应该简单些,财务也应该更简单。
Life should be simpler in retirement. So should your finances.
不管什么年纪,制定一个清晰的财务规划都是好主意。但越来越多的研究表明,随着我们迈入古稀之年、选股能力开始下降,化繁为简将更显紧迫。
A clear-cut financial plan is a good idea at any age. But a growing body of research suggests simplicity takes on added urgency as we move into our 70s, when stock-picking acumen begins to slip.
巴菲特(Warren Buffett)年近80,精力仍然旺盛,但我们很多人在晚年时候难有健康的身体或清楚的头脑。上了80岁的人,大约一半都存在一定程度的痴呆或认知功能 减退,而最近的研究显示,人的财务决策能力在70岁过后开始下降,75岁过后下降更快,很像老去的运动员失去了速度和灵活性。
Warren Buffett is pushing 80 and still going strong, but many of us mightn't have the luxury of good health or a clear mind in our later years. About half of those in their 80s have some dementia or cognitive decline, and recent research into our financial decision-making skills suggests they begin to slip after age 70 and suffer more rapid declines after 75, much as aging athletes lose speed and agility.
美联储(Federal Reserve)的科尔尼奥蒂斯(George M. Korniotis)和得克萨斯大学(University of Texas)商学院的库马尔(Alok Kumar)对上世纪90年代投资者的数千笔交易做了研究。他们发现,投资者年龄越大,交易频度就越低,投资组合风险度也越小,而从70岁过后不久开始, 他们的选股技巧也在流失。即便如此,他们的平均年回报也比预期低3%到5%。
George M. Korniotis of the Federal Reserve and Alok Kumar of the University of Texas business school studied thousands of stock trades made by investors in the 1990s. They found that older investors traded less frequently and held less-risky portfolios, but they also lost their knack for stock picking beginning in their early 70s, enough so that their average annual returns were 3% to 5% less than expected.
这个问题比较麻烦,因为投资者到七八十岁的时候,重返工作岗位的能力下降,做出错误决策后所需的复元时间也没有年轻投资者那么多。这也是很多大 量投资于股市的退休人士在去年所领教的。
That is problematic because investors in their 70s and 80s are less able to return to work and have fewer years to recover from poor choices than younger investors, as many retirees with large stock portfolios learned last year
一篇刚刚发表、名为《The Age of Reason》(理智年代)的论文也有类似的发现。四位经济学家对多种贷款交易的银行数据进行了研究,发现20几岁和70几岁的人在财务上犯错的可能性比 中年人大得多,这些错误包括接受超出正常水平的房贷利率,因未及时为信用卡还款欠下滞纳金,或者是信用透支额度超过限制。
Similarly, in a just-published paper titled 'The Age of Reason,' four economists studied bank data on several types of loan transactions. They found that people in their 20s and those over 70 were much more likely than those in middle age to make financial mistakes, such as accepting higher-than-necessary rates on home-equity loans or owing fees for paying a credit card late or going over a credit limit.
经济学家认为,年轻人犯错是因为经验不足,年长者犯错则是因为决策能力下降。他们指出,后者尤为麻烦,因为年长者的资产要多得多,因而风险敞口 也要大得多。
The economists attributed the mistakes of the young to inexperience, but those of older adults to declining decision-making abilities. That is especially troublesome, they note, because older people have much larger assets, and thus have much more at stake.
考虑到我们不知道老去时会面临什么样的挑战,要防止出现错误决策或上当受骗,最好是在离75岁还有很久的时候,就拿出一个易于操作的财务计划。 看看能不能做到以下几步:
Given that we can't know what challenges we may face as we age, the best defense against poor decisions or fraud is a good offense-a simple-to-manage financial plan, put in place well before age 75. Consider these steps:
──简化投资。你不必放弃做一个积极型投资者,但要考虑放弃选个股,换一些更简单的选择,如指数型基金。不要做可能难于脱手的另类投资或私人合 伙投资。很多投资公司都会计算出法定退休金(IRA) 并自动发给你,还提供自动恢复投资平衡的付费服务,这些公司有Vanguard Group,富达投资(Fidelity Investments)和嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)等。
• Simplify your investments. You don't have to give up being an active investor. But consider ditching individual stocks in favor of easier choices like index funds. Avoid alternative investments and private partnerships that might be hard to sell. Many investment firms, including Vanguard Group, Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab, will calculate and automatically send you mandatory IRA distributions and offer services that, for a fee, automatically rebalance your investments.
──清理账户。我们很多人都有十几个银行户头和经纪账户,或有多家银行的存单。整合账户过后,资金的追踪会简单得多。另外据加州帕洛阿尔托的老 年法律师吉尔菲斯(Michael Gilfix)说,人们往往会低估自己的资产或忘记自己的账户,所以你可能会发现自己比原来想的要富有。
• Pare accounts. Many of us have 10 or more banking and brokerage accounts, or certificates of deposits at several banks. Consolidating makes keeping track of your money much easier. Plus, says Michael Gilfix, an elder-law attorney in Palo Alto, Calif., people tend to underestimate their holdings or forget about accounts, so you may find that you have more than you think.
──理清手续。社保金可能已经直接存了起来,你也可能已经指派某人在你动不得的时候做重大决策。但还是要在那些购物袋里翻翻,看有没有什么重要 的账目或股票凭证,这些东西应该放在经纪公司。
• Get your paperwork in order. Your Social Security payments are probably directly deposited, and you probably have designated someone to make major decisions if you are incapacitated. But search those shopping bags for important account statements and stock certificates, which should be held at brokerage firms.
──还清债务。美联储2007年对消费者财务的研究发现,近一半以65到74岁人士作主的家庭都还欠着房贷,37%拥有信用卡欠款。把这些账还 完,会腾出宝贵的现金,并减轻忘记还款的担心。
• Eliminate debt. The Federal Reserve's 2007 study of consumer finances found that almost half of households headed by someone 65 to 74 years old had a mortgage, and 37% carried credit-card balances. Paying those off frees up precious cash and lessens the worry of forgetting to pay bills.
你可以永远无法把衣柜清理干净,但如果把财务搞清楚,你的生活将变得更简单,如果配偶或继承人不得不接管,他们也会从中受益良多。
You may never get that hall closet cleaned out, but straightening up your financial house will simplify your life and help your spouse or heirs if they have to take over.