巴菲特在周一接受电视采访
Every few years, critics say Warren Buffett has lost his touch.
每隔几年，都有批评者说巴菲特(Warren Buffett)宝刀已老。
He's too old and too old-fashioned, they claim. He doesn't get it anymore. This time he's wrong.
他们说，巴菲特年岁太老，作派也太老。他再也不能把握形势，这一次他是错了。
It happened during the dotcom bubble, when Mr. Buffett was mocked for refusing to join the party. And it happened again last year.
网络 泡沫期间，他们这么说他，嘲笑他拒绝加入盛宴。去年，这种声音又一次浮现。
As the Dow tumbled below 7,000, Mr. Buffett came under fire for having jumped into the crisis too early and too boldly, making big bets on Goldman Sachs and General Electric during the fall of 2008, and urging the public to plunge into shares.
道指跌破七千点的时候，人们认为巴菲特是过早、过于大胆 地利用了危机。2008年秋季，巴菲特在高盛(Goldman Sachs)和通用电气(General Electric)押下大额赌注，并呼吁公众大量购买股票。
Now it's time for those critics to sit down for their traditional three course meal: humble pie, their own words and crow.
现在，轮到批评家们哑 口无言了。
On Saturday, Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported that net earnings rocketed 61% last year to $5,193 per share, while book value jumped 20% to a record high. Berkshire's Class A shares, which slumped to nearly $70,000 last year, have rebounded to $120,000.
上周六巴菲特的伯克希 尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)发布报告，显示去年其净利润激增61%，达到每股5,193元，账面价值跃升20%，达到纪录高位。该公司A类股去年接近跌破 70,000美元，如今已回升至120,000美元。
Those bets on GE and Goldman? They've made billions so far. And anyone who took Mr. Buffett's advice and invested in the stock market in October 2008, even through a simple index fund, is up about 25%.
在 通用和高盛身上下的赌注表现如何？目前为止已经挣了数十亿美元。另外，任何人只要在2008年10月份听从巴菲特的建议投资了股市，就算是通过一只简单的 指数型基金，其投资也涨了大约25%。
This is nothing new, of course. Anyone who held a $10,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway at the start of 1965 has about $80 million today.
当然这也不是稀罕事。任何人只要在1965年持有伯克希尔哈撒韦尔公司一只10,000美元的股票，今天就拥有大约8,000万美元的财富。
How does he do it? Mr. Buffett explained his beliefs to new investors in his letter to stockholders Saturday:
巴菲特是怎么做到的？上周六的致股东 信中，他向新投资者解释了他的信条：
Stay liquid. 'We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers,' he wrote. 'We will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. Moreover, that liquidity will be constantly refreshed by a gusher of earnings from our many and diverse businesses.'
保持流动性充足。他 写道，我们决不会对陌生人的好意产生依赖，我们对自己事务的安排，一定会让我们极有可能面临的任何现金要求在我们的流动性面前显得微不足道；另外，这种流 动性还将被我们所投的多家、多样化的公司所产生的利润流不断刷新。
Buy when everyone else is selling. 'We've put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It's been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend . . . . Big opportunities come infrequently. When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.'
大家都抛时我买进。巴菲特写道，在过去两年的混乱中，我们把大量资金用起来；这段时间对于投 资者来说是极佳时期，因为恐慌气氛是他们的最好朋友……重大机遇难得一见，当天上掉金时，要拿一个大桶而不是顶针去接。
Don't buy when everyone else is buying. 'Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance,' Mr. Buffett wrote. The obvious corollary is to be patient. You can only buy when everyone else is selling if you have held your fire when everyone was buying.
大家都买时我不买。巴菲特写道，那些只在评论家都很乐观时才投资的人，最后都 是用极高的代价去买一种没有意义的安慰。从他这句话推导，显然是要有耐心。如果人人都在买进时你做到了按兵不动，那么只有在人人都抛售时你才能买进。
Value, value, value. 'In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business -- through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market -- and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two.'
价值，价值，价值。巴菲特写道，投资中最重要的是你为了什么而给一家公司投钱──通过在股市中购买它的一个小 部分──以及这家公司在未来一二十年会挣多少。
Don't get suckered by big growth stories. Mr. Buffett reminded investors that he and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger 'avoid businesses whose futures we can't evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be.'
别被高增长故事愚弄。巴菲特提醒投资者说，他和伯克希尔副董事长芒格(Charlie Munger)不投那些“我们不能评估其未来的公司”，不管它们的产品可能多么让人兴奋。
Most investors who bet on the auto industry in 1910, planes in 1930 or TV makers in 1950 ended up losing their shirts, even though the products really did change the world. 'Dramatic growth' doesn't always lead to high profit margins and returns on capital. China, anyone?
多数在1910年赌押汽车业、1930年赌飞机或在1950年下注于电视机生产商的投资者，到头来输得一无所有，尽管这些产品确实改变了世界。“急剧增 长”并不一定带来高利润率和高额资本回报。喂，有没有人下注于中国？
Understand what you own. 'Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us,' Mr. Buffett wrote.
理解你 所持有的东西。巴菲特写道，根据媒体或分析师评论进行买卖的投资者不适合于我们。
Defense beats offense. 'Though we have lagged the S&P in some years that were positive for the market, we have consistently done better than the S&P in the eleven years during which it delivered negative results. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that's likely to continue.' All timely advice from Mr. Buffett for turbulent times.
防守好于进攻。巴菲特写道，虽然我们在某些市场上扬的年头里落后于标普指数，但在 标普指数下跌的11个年头里，我们的表现一直好过这一指数；换句话说，我们的防守一直好于进攻，这种情况可能会继续下去。在动荡年代，巴菲特的这些建议都 是符合时宜的。